January 22, 2018
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12.01.2018 | 15:00

Gul and Erdogan Remote Debate. On the eve of new developments

Before the New Year Holidays days and immediately after that, political life in neighboring Turkey was not spectacular, but somewhat interesting. It seems that Gul-Erdogan's deaf conflict is gaining new momentum, this time in the form of "mutual artillery training," during which former and current presidents Abdullah Gyul and Erdogan fired against each other.

 

The first "serve" was done by Gul. On his Twitter page on December 26, he announced that there were illegitimate acts in the country under cover of the state of emergency following the state coup d'etat 2016, and the only way to eliminate them is one - return to democracy. In this regard, Gul said that it is necessary to take urgent steps to cancel the state of emergency.

Erdogan's response did not wait long. At the January 9 meeting of the party's parliamentary group, he announced that those people, who lurk in the strings of the party's caravan with their speeches, can no longer in line with the caravan, especially speak on behalf of the party. They will remain in their place, and we will continue our way.  This was the thought, expressed by the current president of Turkey.

 

And how can this narrative debate be of interest to the Armenian society? You probably remember that several weeks ago, on December 13, the Foreign Minister of Armenia, Nalbandian said during a meeting with his Greek counterpart that official Yerevan will cancel its signature under the Armenian-Turkish protocols by spring of 2018, thereby reaffirming the statement made by the President of Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, a little earlier from the UN tribune. In New York the president spoke very harshly, saying that these documents cannot remain hostage forever.

 

 Let's first note that such earnest statements are never accidental and, of course, well calculated. And to make my thoughts more complete, I propose to go back to 2015 when Gul's was becoming more active on the threshold of parliamentary elections in Turkey. One of the main cards against the former president was his alleged pro-Armenian behavior. Furthermore, in those days, Erdogan proposed to his former boss that the visit to Armenia within the framework of football diplomacy gave the victory over to official Yerevan. A winning card that we still use.

 

After this little tour, I suggest coming back to our days. It is not a secret that in the last three years the Turkish state has undergone severe shocks.

 

· Unsuccessful coup attempt;

 

· A strong stance of the European Union's commitment to not accepting Turks in their family,

 

· Transition from parliament to the presidential system, which Erdogan succeeded in maintaining,

 

· A sharp deterioration of relations with Russia, followed by a swift "rapprochement" months after months, sparked with elements of mutual openness,

 

· Syrian events in which the Turks were trying to play their own game,

 

· An eternal-seeming  Kurdish factor, which was utilized by superpowers in their relations with that country.

 

Moreover, we should not forget about Erdogan's pre-election pledge to hold two crucial referendums. These should have clarified the acceptence to the European Union as well as the position of returning the highest sentence to the legislative field again.

It is clear that these steps would ultimately remove Turkey from Europe and will have a severe reaction to the domestic pro-European mass, which, according to the observations, constitutes about half of the country's population. Another crucial factor: For decades, being the core force of NATO in the region, today, Turkey has serious problems not only with its European partners. In recent months, Erdogan has become "a lion" and has started "showing teeth" to the US, making rascal statements, which at least is strange. The impression is that the Turkish locomotive has begun to move forward with at least distorted brakes.

 

In the light of all this, it is evident that today, if Turkey's superpowers and unity are required to remain on the surface of the water and avoid a geopolitical crash, Gul-Erdogan's skirmishes become at least entertaining.

 

Indeed, internal flashes could not be missed by Turkish commentators. Thus, according to the authoritative Turkish journalist Batuhan Zashar, Gul is obviously going to return to major league politics. He also noted that we will witness the first steps in that direction in the coming February.

 

So, a very curious situation is coming about, despite the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections in Turkey in the year 2019. However, taking into account the inexplicable behavior of the incumbent and his close circle, as well as the number of "interested" people in this state, the events can develop at an accelerated speed. In this regard, it will be much more preferable for us to have Abdullah Gul, with a more flexible mindset, politically open mind and a supporter of European politics, if the news about his return to diplomacy is confirmed. 

Let's hope that the case will not end with a farce.

Gor Armenyan

 



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